Summary of How Our Behaviors Can Spread Faster Than a Pandemic:
Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and Queen’s University have developed a theoretical model that considers the impact of social norms on disease transmission. The model factors in the influence of social dynamics, particularly the impact of social norms on masking and social distancing, to demonstrate that individuals are reluctant to change their behavior if it differs from the majority, which in turn significantly affects disease spread. The study shows that social conformity creates a type of “stickiness” wherein individuals are hesitant to change their non-pharmaceutical intervention usage if it differs from what others are doing. The researchers want to investigate how the interplay of different populations and socioeconomic backgrounds affects the social behaviors of disease intervention.
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Researchers Develop Model Analyzing Social Norms Impact on Disease Transmission
A team of researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and Queen’s University has developed a theoretical model for disease transmission that considers social dynamics, particularly social norms around non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). The team found that social norms such as wearing masks during the COVID-19 pandemic can create “stickiness” where individuals are reluctant to change their behavior if it differs from the majority, significantly affecting disease spread.
Social Dynamics Play a Significant Role in Disease Spread
The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that social conformity creates a type of “stickiness,” elucidating why individuals are reluctant to change their NPI usage. The study aimed to understand better how the prioritization of risk and social norms affects the adoption of NPIs during a pandemic. The model considers the risk of infection, the cost of NPIs, and the social cost of deviating from NPI-usage norms. The team found that when variables such as the cost or effectiveness of the NPI behavior change, it can create more or fewer waves of change and lead to more or fewer people being infected at the end of the epidemic.
Small Changes Can Create Significant Shifts in Population Behaviors
The researchers found that small changes in certain factors, such as the effectiveness of NPIs, transmission rate, and costs of interventions, can cause significant shifts in population behavior. The model describes threshold dynamics in the number of individuals needed to support a behavioral change, which creates “tipping points” in adopting NPI behaviors where a slight difference in the disease prevalence can cause a significant shift in population behavior.
The Relationship Between Social Norms and Disease Spread is Complex
The researchers found that the attack rate did not increase as smoothly as anticipated; instead, it had a more “sawtooth look” when graphed. These results highlight a complex relationship between social norms and disease spread, proving that social conformity is slow to adopt new behaviors, such as mask-wearing, until the disease reaches levels so high that the risk perception overrides conformity.
Policy Implications
According to Erol Akçay, associate professor of biology at Penn, information on these trends and social dynamics can be helpful for policymakers weighing decisions about responding to human behavior. The model’s results can be used to investigate how the interplay of different populations and socioeconomic backgrounds affects the social behaviors of disease intervention.
The Importance of NPIs in Containing Disease Spread
This study highlights the importance of NPIs in containing disease spread and the impact of social norms on their implementation. The findings can guide public health policymakers in creating effective interventions to encourage NPI usage while considering social conformity to gain maximum adherence and prevent significant disease spread.
